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Writings

Writings on forensic economics

 Here are my  writings for publications or presentations regarding forensic economics. Writings listed in my CV that do not focus on forensic economic issues are not included here, and only the latest versions of writings are included. To see other writings, 


“The Markov assumption for worklife expectancy,” (with Gary Skoog), Journal of Forensic Economics 17, 2 (Spring – summer 2004, published June 2005). Reprinted in Kaufman, Roger T., Rodgers, James D., and Martin, Gerald D. (eds.), Economic Foundations of Injury and Death Damages, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2005. Explains the theory and data sources used to calculate worklife expectancies using the method first developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and now commonly used by other authors; discusses implications of the assumptions required by the method. Available at the journal 


  Indirect Economic Damages.” Slides for presentation at Fall Forensic Economics workshop, Salt Lake City, UT (Oct. 13 – 14, 2006). Analyzes the loss caused by uncertainty of recovery of compensation for tort, leading to distortion in time path of consumption (precautionary reduction before outcome is known, followed by increase if outcome is successful). 


 Damages from past loss of health insurance,” Manuscript presented at NAFE meetings at the Allied Social Science Associations annual conference, Chicago, January 2007. Analyzes the loss incurred by a plaintiff who loses health insurance coverage as a result of job loss, in the context of diminishing absolute risk-aversion.

 “Life Tables, Joint Life Tables, Life Annuities, and Joint Life Annuities,” Journal of Legal Economics 16(2) (April, 2010). Extends the 2005 U.S. Life Tables to allow easy calculation of the present value of life annuities, temporary, deferred, and simple, for individual and joint lives, for any age and interest rate; explains the underlying formulas and the reasons that these annuities are relevant to the work of a forensic economist. Available at the Journal website. 


 “The pecuniary value of commuting time,” Eastern Economic Journal 36(3) (Summer, 2010). Provides results from the literature of transportation economics concerning the value that workers place on their commuting time, with application to the measurement of damages where commuting time is changed significantly as a result of the assumed tort. Research by transportation economists adopted by both the U.S. and Canadian Departments of Transportation  concludes that 50% of the wage is an appropriate average measure.

Available at the Journal website. 


"Comment on Skoog and Ciecka, "An Autoregressive Model of order two for work life expectancies...." Journal of Legal Economics 19(2) (April, 2013). Observes that the paper illustrates the fact that it is not always appropriate to use the average work life expectancy derived from a first order autoregressive model; information specific to the plaintiff might make lower or higher values appropriate.


"Measuring Lost Health Insurance Benefits with Limited Information." Journal of Legal Economics 20(1-2) (October, 2014). Explains and compares sources for measuring average health benefits when values for the particular job are not available (e. g. to measure future expected health benefits for an injured child not yet in the labor force).


"Real Earnings of Full-time Workers by Education, Age Group and Sex, 1974 - 2012." Journal of Forensic Economics 25(2) (December, 2014), with accompanying Excel workbook, "Foster, Earnings Statistics 1974 - 2012," accessible from URL: http://www.journalofforensiceconomics.com/toc/foen/25/2


"Net Interest Rates: History and Measurement." Journal of Forensic Economics 26(1) (December, 2015. The note shows that the high interest rates of the 1980s are not relevant today; it goes on to discuss alternative measures of the net interest rate and recommends one of the alternatives.


"Tailoring" (with James D. Rodgers), The Earnings Analyst 15 (2016). Courts encourage economic damage experts to tailor their appraisal closely to the facts of the specific case. We consider the differences between some kinds of tailoring that are widely accepted and others that are controversial, and describe some of the characteristics and circumstances that could be a basis for tailoring, including qualitative factors for which no numerical measure of impact is available; the paper pays particular attention of issues associated with race and sex. We conclude with some generalizations.


"Individual and Joint Life Annuities from Extended 2014 U.S. Life Tables" (with Gary Skoog). Journal of Legal Economics, forthcoming. Updates to the 2014 U.S. Life Tables and expands the 2010 JLE paper on life annuities listed above, with refinements that simplify data entry and calculations of results for the user.


"Applying laddered interest rates to annuity calculations given forward (marginal, not annual average) spot rates." Slides for presentation at 2017 NAFE International Conference, Milan, Italy, May 27, 2017. Discusses the application of laddered interest rates in the previous paper for circumstances where a constant interest rate is scheduled to change e.g. for future changes in a cost of living offset to inflation.